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Rafael Cerame • 25 de enero de 2022

Close to a global war conflict...

Consequences of a Russian invasion in Ukraine...

The difference between the "Cold War" that the world experienced during the 1960s and 1970s, and the current situation that has caused this state of "Cold War" to be revived, is that in the first confrontation, two world powers faced each other, the extinct Soviet Union and the United States. Now, political, military, and economic supremacy is disputed by three forces instead of two. United States, Russia, and China measured their strength on the world power board.


Let's review the history of the origin of the significant world war conflicts during the last century.


The murder of the Austro-Hungarian crown and his family on June 28, 1914, triggered what became known as the First World War. That military conflict resulted in a victory for the allied forces through the peace treaty at Versailles and the dissolution of the German and Russian empires, giving way to the formation of the Soviet Union.


After the first war, new countries emerged in Europe and the Middle East.


Germany's invasion of Poland in 1939 and the subsequent Japanese attack on the naval base at Pearl Harbor (Hawaii) marked the beginning of World War II, where the Allied forces again prevailed. After that conflict, the United States and the Soviet Union disputed military power in the "Cold War" period.


The arms race evolved into the era of nuclear missiles, putting the world at imminent risk of catastrophe with the crisis in Cuba in October 1962. Fortunately, the sense of survival and prudence of the leaders in Washington and Moscow prevailed at that difficult time for humanity.


For decades, a not necessarily formalized "pact" was established to avoid repeating the conditions for another "missile crisis" and signed agreements for nuclear disarmament.


However, this year 2022 begins with the threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. What repercussions could it have if the United States and NATO member countries do not respond militarily to this action by Vladimir Putin? One of those could be that China understands that similar action in Taiwan would not provoke the intervention of the United States. In this scenario where the forces of the three world powers are measured: the United States, Russia, and China, we must consider the Russians and Chinese have increased their presence in Latin American countries, such as Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua.


The next few days will be decisive to know if a Russian invasion in Ukraine will provoke a potential world war. The reality is that we cannot see this conflict in Ukraine as something distant from us in America, and the consequences of military action in that country could be very close.


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2022 will be the year in which the Pandemic must end, as we are experiencing it. In this crisis, we have lost family and friends and seen the fragility of life, and we must learn from that experience and not waste time on meaningless  controversies. Joy life with decent work, sports, the arts, and any activity fosters family unity. In the political arena, let us understand that defending our principles and ideals is perfectly compatible with respect for those who do not think like one. I will welcome the new year with optimism and am confident that it will be the beginning of better times. Happy New Year. Rafael Cerame D'Acosta
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